Appendix 7 - Enrollment Projections for 2015 By County.

Conservative estimate based on 0.5 migration scenario

County Population Estimates by Year

County of Residence

Central Texas Area Total

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

2002 Population Estimate

60,967

33,593

104,316

843,674

267,377

1,309,927

2005 Population Estimate

66,047

35,815

115,595

889,947

294,247

1,401,651

2010 Population Estimate

75,386

39,971

135,450

963,120

341,322

1,555,249

2015 Population Estimate

85,860

44,627

157,115

1,034,793

392,468

1,714,863


Fall 2001 Enrollment in Higher Education

County of Residence

Central Texas Area Total

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Total Higher Education

1,317

877

4,028

38,069

9,508

53,799

% of Population Enrolled

2.2%

2.6%

3.9%

4.5%

3.6%

4.1%

Estimated Future Enrollments based on Current Participation Rates by County

Participation Rate

2.2%

2.6%

3.9%

4.5%

3.6%

4.1%

Fall 2005

1,427

935

4,464

40,157

10,464

57,446

Fall 2010

1,628

1,044

5,230

43,459

12,138

63,498

Fall 2015

1,855

1,165

6,067

46,693

13,956

69,736

             

Estimated Enrollment if Each County Achieves Increased Participation Rate Goals

Central Texas Area Total
 

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Fall 2005 (5.2%)

3,434

1,862

6,011

46,277

15,301

72,886

Fall 2010 (5.5%)

4,146

2,198

7,450

52,972

18,773

85,539

Fall 2015 (5.7%)

4,894

2,544

8,956

58,983

22,371

97,747


Enrollment Shortfalls Based on Difference in Current Trend Enrollment Rates and Targeted Participation Rates

Central Texas Area Total
 

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Fall 2005

(2,008)

(927)

(1,547)

(6,120)

(4,837)

(15,440)

Fall 2010

(2,518)

(1,155)

(2,220)

(9,513)

(6,635)

(22,040)

Fall 2015

(3,039)

(1,379)

(2,889)

(12,290)

(8,414)

(28,012)

Enrollment Shortfalls Based on Difference in Fall 2001 Enrollment and Targeted Participation Rates

Central Texas Area Total
 

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Fall 2005

2,117

985

1,983

8,208

5,793

19,087

Fall 2010

2,829

1,321

3,422

14,903

9,265

31,740

Fall 2015

3,577

1,667

4,928

20,914

12,863

43,948


Estimate based on 1.0 migration scenario

County Population Estimates by Year

County of Residence

Central Texas Area Total

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

2002 Estimate

63,488

34,599

108,951

855,721

279,711

1,342,470

2005 Estimate

73,108

38,508

128,624

924,032

329,104

1,493,376

2010 Estimate

92,180

45,959

166,905

1,043,671

424,709

1,773,424

2015 Estimate

115,905

54,656

213,718

1,172,191

540,267

2,096,737


Fall 2001 Enrollment in Higher Education

County of Residence

Central Texas Area Total

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Total Higher Education

1,317

877

4,028

38,069

9,508

53,799

% of Population Enrolled

2.1%

2.5%

3.7%

4.4%

3.4%

4.0%

Estimated Future Enrollments based on Current Participation Rates by County

Participation Rate

2.1%

2.5%

3.7%

4.4%

3.4%

4.0%

Fall 2005

1,517

976

4,755

41,108

11,187

59,543

Fall 2010

1,912

1,165

6,171

46,430

14,437

70,115

Fall 2015

2,404

1,385

7,901

52,148

18,365

82,204


Estimated Enrollment if Each County Achieves Increased Participation Rate Goals

Central Texas Area Total
 

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Fall 2005 (5.2%)

3,802

2,002

6,688

48,050

17,113

77,656

Fall 2010 (5.5%)

5,070

2,528

9,180

57,402

23,359

97,538

Fall 2015 (5.7%)

6,607

3,115

12,182

66,815

30,795

119,514


Enrollment Shortfalls Based on Difference in Current Trend Enrollment Rates and Targeted Participation Rates

Central Texas Area Total
 

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Fall 2005

(2,285)

(1,026)

(1,933)

(6,942)

(5,926)

(18,113)

Fall 2010

(3,158)

(1,363)

(3,009)

(10,971)

(8,922)

(27,423)

Fall 2015

(4,202)

(1,730)

(4,281)

(14,667)

(12,430)

(37,310)

Enrollment Shortfalls Based on Difference in Fall 2001 Enrollment and Targeted Participation Rates

Central Texas Area Total
 

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Fall 2005

2,485

1,125

2,660

9,981

7,605

23,857

Fall 2010

3,753

1,651

5,152

19,333

13,851

43,739

Fall 2015

5,290

2,238

8,154

28,746

21,287

65,715

Conservative estimate based on 0.5 migration scenario

Institutional Enrollment Projections Based on Goal of 5.7% Participation Rate and the Following Market Share Scenario:  UT enrollment is constant (due to cap); all other university and two-year colleges (out of area) maintain the same market share proportion;  ACC and SWT maintain the same market share, but split the additional growth with 70% attending ACC and 30% attending SWT except for Williamson County where the split will be 50% each to ACC and SWT.

Fall 2005
5.2% Participation Rate

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Area Total

Increase from Fall 2001 Enrollment

UT

169

51

370

7,838

1,420

9,848

0

SWT

710

671

2,814

5,532

2,253

11,980

4,317

ACC

1,239

484

1,227

23,273

5,859

32,082

9,190

All Other University

725

344

837

4,301

2,885

9,092

2,760

All Other Two-Year

279

136

179

547

1,334

2,475

905

Local Private Institutions

214

47

175

3,332

959

4,726

1,168

All Other Private Institutions

99

130

409

1,454

591

2,682

746

Total

3,434

1,862

6,011

46,277

15,301

72,886

19,087

Fall 2010
5.5% Participation Rate

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Area Total

 

UT

169

51

370

7,838

1,420

9,848

0

SWT

868

795

3,514

6,673

2,925

14,774

7,111

ACC

1,520

578

1,583

27,433

7,350

38,464

15,572

All Other University

875

406

1,038

4,923

3,540

10,782

4,450

All Other Two-Year

337

160

222

626

1,637

2,982

1,412

Local Private Institutions

258

55

216

3,814

1,177

5,520

1,962

All Other Private Institutions

120

153

507

1,664

725

3,168

1,232

Total

4,146

2,198

7,450

52,972

18,773

85,539

31,740

Fall 2015
5.7% Participation Rate

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Area Total

 

UT

169

51

370

7,838

1,420

9,848

0

SWT

1,033

922

4,247

7,697

3,622

17,521

9,858

ACC

1,815

674

1,955

31,169

8,894

44,508

21,616

All Other University

1,033

470

1,247

5,482

4,219

12,451

6,119

All Other Two-Year

398

186

267

697

1,950

3,498

1,928

Local Private Institutions

305

64

260

4,247

1,402

6,278

2,720

All Other Private Institutions

141

177

609

1,853

863

3,644

1,708

Total

4,894

2,544

8,956

58,983

22,371

97,747

43,948

Note:  Market share information can be found on the table titled "Higher Education Enrollment of Central Texas Residents."  The lower half of the table shows the percentage of Central Texas residents enrolled in each institution, which is effectively that institution's market share.

Conservative estimate based on1.0 migration scenario

Institutional Enrollment Projections Based on Goal of 5.7% Participation Rate and the Following Market Share Scenario:  UT enrollment is constant (due to cap); all other university and two-year colleges (out of area) maintain the same market share proportion;  ACC and SWT maintain the same market share, but split the additional growth with 70% attending ACC and 30% attending SWT except for Williamson County where the split will be 50% each to ACC and SWT.

Fall 2005
5.2% Participation Rate

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Area Total

Increase from Fall 2001 Enrollment

UT

169

51

370

7,838

1,420

9,848

0

SWT

791

723

3,144

5,834

2,604

13,096

5,433

ACC

1,384

523

1,395

24,375

6,637

34,313

11,421

All Other University

802

370

932

4,466

3,227

9,797

3,465

All Other Two-Year

309

146

199

568

1,492

2,714

1,144

Local Private Institutions

237

50

194

3,460

1,073

5,014

1,456

All Other Private Institutions

110

139

455

1,510

661

2,874

938

Total

3,802

2,002

6,688

48,050

17,113

77,656

23,857

Fall 2010
5.5% Participation Rate

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Area Total

 

UT

169

51

370

7,838

1,420

9,848

0

SWT

1,072

917

4,356

7,428

3,813

17,585

9,922

ACC

1,885

670

2,011

30,187

9,319

44,070

21,178

All Other University

1,070

467

1,279

5,335

4,405

12,555

6,223

All Other Two-Year

412

184

273

679

2,037

3,585

2,015

Local Private Institutions

316

63

267

4,133

1,464

6,243

2,685

All Other Private Institutions

146

176

624

1,803

902

3,652

1,716

Total

5,070

2,528

9,180

57,402

23,359

97,538

43,739

Fall 2015
5.7% Participation Rate

Bastrop

Caldwell

Hays

Travis

Williamson

Area Total

 

UT

169

51

370

7,838

1,420

9,848

0

SWT

1,413

1,133

5,817

9,031

5,253

22,646

14,983

ACC

2,492

834

2,753

36,037

12,511

54,626

31,734

All Other University

1,395

575

1,697

6,210

5,807

15,684

9,352

All Other Two-Year

537

227

363

790

2,685

4,602

3,032

Local Private Institutions

411

78

354

4,811

1,930

7,584

4,026

All Other Private Institutions

191

217

829

2,099

1,189

4,524

2,588

Total

6,607

3,115

12,182

66,815

30,795

119,514

65,715

Note:  Market share information can be found on the table titled "Higher Education Enrollment of Central Texas Residents."  The lower half of the table shows the percentage of Central Texas residents enrolled in each institution, which is effectively that institution's market share.