Closing the Gaps Appendix 8

	2000-2001 Academic Year
College or University	Associate/Certificate	Bachelors	Masters	Doctoral/ Professional	Total Awards
Austin Community College	1,120				1,120
The University of Texas at Austin		7,624	2,567	1,297	11,488
Southwest Texas State University		3,571	754	3	4,328
St. Edward's University		653	248		901
Concordia University		123	7		130
Southwestern University		264			264
Huston-Tillotson College		105			105
Austin Area Total	1,120	12,340	3,576	1,300	18,336
	2014-2015 Academic Year
Goals for Closing the Gaps	Associate/Certificate	Bachelors	Masters	Doctoral/ Professional	Total Awards
Targeted Increase of 50%	1,680	18,510	5,364	1,950	27,504
Estimated Awards to Austin Area Residents*	1,394	4,813	1,395	507	8,109
Estimated Awards to Austin Area Residents*	83%	26%	26%	26%	29%
*Proportion of awards made to Austin area residents is based on the pattern of attendance at area institutions. Local residents comprise 83% of local community college enrollments and thus are likely to receive a similar proportion of associate and certificate awards at those institutions. Similarly, local residents comprise 26% of local four-year university enrollments and that was the multiplier used to derive bachelor degrees and higher awards.

If the Austin area higher education institutions increased production of Bachelor’s degrees by 50% as recommended by the Closing the Gaps report, we would have expected 18,510 degrees produced annually. Based upon modified assumptions considering enrollment limits, a more realistic target might be 15,491, [1] a 26% increase.

An estimate of the annual new bachelor’s degree students that will enter the Austin Labor Market can be projected by assuming that 70% of local residents and 25% of non-local students attending local universities will stay in Austin. The chart below also projects annual new entrants into the labor market from both the local universities and also from other Texas universities that serve local residents.

Entering Austin Labor Market

From Local Universities
Local Residents (70% of 4027)	2,819
From Other Texas Universities
Local Residents (70% 3069)	2,148
Total – Local Residents	4,967

From Local Universities
Non-Local Residents (25% of 11,463)	2,865
Total New Graduates Austin Market	7,832

While local institutions award annually approximately 4,027 bachelor’s degrees to local residents, local residents also receive degrees from other state universities. In fact, if those additional student graduates were taken into account, the local residents earning degrees could climb to 7,096. [2] If we assumed that 70% of all local residents, whether attending locally or elsewhere, stayed in the Austin Labor Force, we would annually have 4,967 new local workers from the five county area graduates.

The Austin area educational attainment levels, of course, will also be impacted by how many of the 11,463 non-local graduates of local colleges decide to enter Austin’s workforce. If we assumed that 25% of the non-local graduates entered the Austin workforce, we have another 2,865 new workers from those graduates who stay in Austin. Together from all sources we could have 7,832 additional bachelor’s degree employees in Austin annually, if the plan of increased degree production and local retention of graduates was met.

This paper assumes that it may be expected that the local resident share of the Master degree awards might be comparable to the local resident share of Bachelor’s degree. However, the Doctorate and professional local shares will probably be lower percentage, since there are higher numbers of non-locals and even foreign students in these programs. Therefore, while we may project that 26% of Master’s degrees of the local universities are awarded to local residents, a lower percentage, perhaps 10%, may be more reflective of the Professional or Doctorate level of graduate awards to local residents.

Similar to the analysis of the Bachelor’s degree awards, it is also probable that local residents will obtain graduate degrees at other Texas Universities and return to the Austin area. In addition, we should also expect that many new PhD’s and Professionals, such as attorneys, may also wish to stay in Austin. The retention of non-locals, however, should be lower than retention of Bachelor’s degree graduates.

Therefore, of the 3576 Master Degree awards, approximately 914 may be awarded to local residents. Accepting the enrollment patterns for local residents at other Texas Universities, another 689 local residents might be able to be assumed to acquire Master Degrees from these other Texas Universities. If 70% of this total of 1603 awarded Master’s degree graduates returned home to join the local economy, an estimated 1122 local residents would annually the local workforce. Of the remaining 2646 Master Degree awards to non-local residents, an additional 661 may join the local labor force, if we assume a 25% retention. In total, 1783 master degree graduates may join the local labor Force annually. Over a 10 year period, 17,830 Master’s degree candidates may be added to the workforce. However, by 2010, with a 15% out-migration of this source, 15,155 would be expected to remain. These totals represent an approximate shortfall of 25% of the required additions of Master Degree residents in the population mix, if we are to retain are current attainment share. The short-fall increases, if we move from a conservative population projection to projection based upon the most recent past decade. Under the higher population projection the short-fall would be closer to 50% for the needed Master Degree residents. [3] Under the higher population projection, a total of 144,069 Graduate or Professional residents would be necessary to maintain the 12.4% attainment level. The Master’s degree portion (68%) would require 97,967 MA holders, or 33,000 higher than the 2000 census total of 64,609.

[1] We assume that the University of Texas will increase Bachelor Degree production by only 10% which would be achieved through greater retention. Similar 10% increases are also projected at Concordia and Southwestern University. Because of enrollment capacity increases, we assume a 56% increase in Bachelor degree production at Southwest Texas State University, a 50% increase at St. Edward’s and a 25% at Huston-Tillotson College.

[2] This assumes that 22% of the total enrollment graduates each year. Currently, 8268 (16%) of local residents are attending non-local Texas public and private colleges and universities and that is projected to rise to 13,950 by 2010. An additional 3,069 graduates (22%) under this assumption can be added to the “local” total, raising the total to 7,096. If 70% are retained in the local workforce, 4,967 new bachelor’s degree entrants are available locally.

[3] Under the higher population projection, a total of 144,069 Graduate or Professional degree residents would be necessary to maintain the 12.4% attainment level. The Master’s degree portion (68%) would require 97,967 MA holders, or 33,000 higher than the 2000 census total of 64,609.