Closing the Gaps In Higher Education
In Central Texas
An Investment in the Future of Central Texas
Austin Area Research Organization
April 2003

The "Closing the Gaps" performance targets for Texas State University were initially submitted to the Coordinating Board in January 2002.

Future participation rates for Whites, Hispanics, Blacks and overall students at Texas State University were projected by the Office of Institutional Research under the assumption that Texas State University's historical draw by ethnicity from Texas counties in fall semesters 1996 through 2001 would remain constant in future years. These draw rates, calculated as percentages of each ethnic population in each county, were applied to Texas State Data Center population projections to estimate future enrollments by ethnicity. For example, if Texas State enrolled 0.18% of the Hispanics living in a given county during the 1996-2001 period, we assumed that we would draw 0.18% of Hispanics living there in future years. In April 2003, the Vice President for Student Affairs office expressed concern that the enrollment projections did not agree with new enrollment projections for Texas State University that were published by the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board. The "Closing the Gaps" enrollment figures were therefore adjusted to match the new Coordinating Board enrollment projections.

Historical ratios of degrees awarded to enrolled students over the 1996-2001 period were applied to the above enrollment projections to estimate how many bachelor's degrees Texas State University would award by ethnicity in future years. The percentage of total bachelor's degrees that were historically contributed by Computer Science, Math, and Physical Science degrees was applied to the overall degree projections to estimate how many degrees would be awarded in those disciplines in the future. Projections of bachelor's degrees to be awarded in Health Professions were provided by the Dean of the College of Health Professions, and projections of bachelor's degrees to be awarded in Engineering were provided by the Chair of the Technology department. Because of adjustments to the original enrollment projections, described in the preceding paragraph, proportional increases in the projected number of bachelor's degrees were made; the projections of bachelor's degrees in science & engineering were not changed.

Projections of doctoral degrees to be awarded were tied to Education and Geography programs and were provided by the office of the Vice President for Academic Affairs, which consulted with the Dean of the College of Education and the Chair of the Department of Geography. These degree projections were tied to five-year historical growth rates in the Geography department and expected growth rates in Education doctoral programs. Ethnic diversity in these doctoral programs was estimated by applying current diversity in the master's programs of the same departments to the doctoral enrollment projections. These projections were not changed with adjustments to the enrollment projections that are described above.

A few other estimates: Projections of teacher certifications were provided by the Dean of the College of Education, who assumed a 1.2% annual growth rate in certifications from the last actual numbers. Projections of Federal Science & Engineering Research Funding are from the Associate VP for Research and Federal Relations, who assumed a 5% annual growth rate from the last actual figures. The Vice President for Academic Affairs provided the names of academic programs that are nationally recognized and programs that are targeted to achieve national recognition. He also indicated that a plan has been developed to move the targeted programs in the direction of national recognition.

The period of 1990 to 2000 was one of population growth and major demographic change for Central Texas. Central Texas population reached 1,249,763, up 47%, with a large modification in the ethnic composition of the area. Projections by the State Demographer, Dr. Steve Murdock, suggest that both trends are expected to continue during the coming decades. The impact of these trends on Texas and the Austin region will be profoundly experienced both in economic and social terms.

Austin is an area dependent on intellectual capital or the strength of a well-educated workforce. The Austin area prides itself on the higher education degree completion of its adult population. In the most recent census, 65% of the adult population, twenty-five or older, had some level of post-secondary education with 37% with a bachelor’s degree or higher. In contrast, statewide, only 51% of Texans had some level of post-secondary education. [1]

The Austin American-Statesman, has heralded Austin as one the nation’s premier “City of Ideas” built upon a strong foundation of the higher education backgrounds of its population. Few would question the impact that The University of Texas has had on the positive economic growth of the region. Unfortunately, it is this strength built on a highly educated workforce that is potentially adversely impacted. It has been estimated that if past demographic trends were to continue into the future, the overall percentage of the adult population in the year 2040 with post-secondary educational attainment, could drop to only 55%, impacting the Austin area economy and way of life. We need to adopt a pro-active strategy aimed at preserving and building our intellectual capital.

Without some plan to reverse the existing trend, the decline in educational attainment of the Austin work force in coming decades would be projected to occur in the post-secondary higher education categories critical to the economy of Austin. Looking at the general trend, somewhere after 2015, the Austin area adult population would slip below the 60% threshold of post-secondary education attainment. Future educational attainment projections are available in greater detail in Appendix 1.

In fact, a report issued by the state demographer warned that if more Texans do not achieve higher levels of degree completion, the state stands to lose up to $40-billion in annual household income by the year 2040. For Austin, an estimated average $4,000 reduction in individual annual household income would cost Austin $2.4 billion of income annually. This is equivalent to a 6% reduction in annual wages.

The reason for this adverse economic impact is based on research demonstrating that those with higher levels of education earn more money over the course of a lifetime.  Someone with an Associates degree would earn annually on average over $15,000 more than someone with only a high school degree, or overall $380,000 more over the course of a work-life. Someone with a Bachelor’s degree would earn an average almost $40,000 more annually or $850,000 over the course of a work-life. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that changes in the educational requirements of jobs in a knowledge based economy means that there are fewer and fewer jobs requiring only a high school degree. The future economy of Austin and Texas is dependent on reversing the current negative trend in higher education participation and degree completion.

This AARO White Paper analysis of population and demographics suggests that the Austin area along with Texas faces a very large challenge to reverse the trend and build upon an economic foundation that is closely linked to the higher education backgrounds of its adult population. In fact, the current data suggests that the college participation rate of the total Texas population has declined during the last decade from 5.3% to 4.9% and is expected to decline further in coming decades. The Texas college participation rate is already below the national average and below states such as California, Illinois and New York. Given this situation, we should not be surprised to be experiencing an economic challenge from these states. 

To reverse this trend by 2015, approximately 500,000 more Texans would need to be enrolled in higher education at all levels including community colleges, bachelor’s degree granting institutions and graduate and professional education.  In addition, of course, we would need these enrollments to lead to more graduates. The Austin area share of the statewide increase in higher education participation is estimated conservatively to range between 43,948 and 65,715. If successful, this would push our higher education participation rate up to 5.7%. This would achieve the state goal of having a participation rate above the national average and comparable to the rates achieved in states with which Texas is in economic competition.  

This paper attempts to detail the expansions of our current higher education institutions that will be necessary if we are to meet the Austin share of “Closing the Gaps.” In addition, the paper in Part II attempts to explore the current characteristics of the “pipeline” to higher education at the ISD level, in order to understand the challenges to expansion of the college going rate of high school graduates.

The expected decline in higher education participation and completion is based upon an analysis that has found that the demographic ethnic groups that will experience the greatest population growth, are the same groups that have historically been less likely to attend and graduate from college.  The Texas and central Texas proportion of the overall population that is Anglo is declining, while the Hispanic proportion of the overall population, in particular, will be increasing. By far, the most significant demographic change from 1990-2000 in the state of Texas and in central Texas has been the disproportionate increase in the Hispanic population. While the overall Austin area grew by 47.7 percent, the Hispanic growth in the Austin area grew by 85.3%. Moreover, this trend of high growth among the Hispanic population is expected to continue in coming decades (Appendix 2).

As the Austin area chart below demonstrates, the Anglo population has attained education levels higher than the Hispanic and Black population. Thus, unless this educational attainment pattern can be reversed, the overall participation rate in higher education and educational attainment of the Austin area population could be expected to decline. It is this challenge that is addressed by this paper.

As stated earlier the overall educational attainment of Austin area residents 25+ years is currently the area’s key economic advantage. In the Austin area, 65% of the population has some post-secondary, college-level educational attainment. Notwithstanding this strength, 15.2% of the adult population or 116,801 residents did not have a high school degree.

However, there were significant differences between the Anglo population post-secondary educational attainment (75.3%) and post-secondary attainment of the Hispanic population (35.3%) (Appendix 3). Moreover, among the growing Hispanic population, those with less than a high school degree among the adult population represented 41.4%.

It is this comparatively low rate of post-secondary higher education attainment among the fast-growing Hispanic population that represents the largest single challenge to the economic future of the Austin area. Closing the gap in higher education attainment between the Anglo population and the Hispanic population would make a very large difference in the makeup of the available intellectual capital in the region. 

Further accentuating the challenge of raising higher education participation is the demographic makeup of the potential college-age population. The younger populations in Texas are Hispanic. These current school-age populations have historically not continued to college. (see Appendix 4) 

Without a reversal in the educational attainment trends among the fastest growing population segments, the adult population with less than a high school degree would more than double between 2000 and 2020 and nearly quadruple by 2040. It is this population, of course, that earns the least income and has a high potential for becoming users of our social welfare system. The percent of the population with post-secondary education would fall precipitously by 2040 (see Appendix 5).

The impact of a proactive, “Closing the Gap” initiative in the Austin area can be demonstrated by projecting the difference over the next decade between maintaining the current educational attainment trend for each demographic group, and a trend that has been altered so as to reflect attainment at the higher, Anglo population rate. If the Hispanic and Black education attainment levels were projected at the Anglo population educational attainment rates, the number of post-secondary degrees and attainment would be higher. Details on potential educational attainment, if all ethnic groups paralleled Anglo attainment can be found in Appendix 5.

Projected 2010 Educational Attainment
Adult Population-25 years plus

Currently, 53,799 residents within the five-county area surrounding Austin (Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell) attend Texas higher education institutions.  Of these residents 43,961 attend three local public universities and colleges (The University of Texas, Southwest Texas State University and Austin Community College) and the four private institutions (Concordia, Huston-Tillotson, St. Edward's and Southwestern). The rest attend other Texas institutions, public and private, outside of the central Texas region.  Out-of-state enrollment is not accounted for in these totals, but may represent an additional 5,000 to 7,000 students.  Full details are provided in Appendix 6.

Texas Higher Education Enrollment of Central Texas Residents

Although 108,643 students attend the local higher education institutions, only 40.5% are from the local Central Texas area. The University of Texas, for example, reflecting its statewide enrollment pool, had a fall 2001 statewide enrollment of 50,616 with 19.5% or 9,848 coming from the five local counties.  Similarly, Southwest Texas had a fall 2001 statewide enrollment of 23,517 with 32.6% or 7,663 from the five county area. Austin Community College, in keeping with its localized mission, drew 83% of its students (22,892) from the five-county area. Among the four private universities, St. Edward’s had the highest percent (63%) of local residents among its enrollments. Southwestern University derived only 19% of its student body from local Austin area.

Austin Community College served 43% of all five-county residents who were enrolled in Texas higher education, while 18.3% attended UT and 14.2 % attended SWT.  Local private colleges and universities were responsible for serving (6.6%) of all local residents enrolled in higher education. An additional 11.8% attended state universities in other parts of the state.

The 53,799 local county residents that enrolled in Texas higher education in Fall 2001, represent 4.1% of the estimated 2002 total population of 1,309,927 (or 4.3% of the 2000 census).  This percentage is probably understated, since it represents only an estimate of central Texas resident enrollments in private colleges and universities outside of this region (examples: Rice, Baylor or Southern Methodist University).

The "Closing the Gaps" Plan of the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board calls for a gradual increase in participation to reach a 5.7% statewide rate by 2015.  If this target were achieved there would be between 97,747 and 119,514 local resident higher education enrollments depending upon whether a conservative estimate (1,714,863) or the “recent past decade trend” (2,096,737) were used as the estimate of population growth.

Higher Education Enrollment Estimates for Closing the Gaps in Austin Area

Using the conservative population estimates the increase of an additional 44,000 students will impact the local universities and colleges in a differential manner.  First, with enrollment capped at the University of Texas, none of the projected increases will occur at The University of Texas.  In addition, the planned expansions for the local private universities and colleges are relatively modest. Finally, the assumptions from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board are that the increased enrollments will disproportionately be realized at the public community colleges versus the public universities at a 70-30 ratio. This ratio has been utilized in this analysis between Austin Community College and Southwest Texas State University for all local counties, except Williamson. We should expect this split to be even in Williamson (rather than 70-30), if  Southwest Texas State University develops a physical facility.

The enrollment increases to reach the 5.7% participation target will significantly impact two local public higher education institutions—Southwest Texas State University and Austin Community College. Even when the growth of the local private colleges and universities are considered, the burden will fall to these two public institutions. With conservative population estimates, ACC would need to grow to 44,508 by 2015 adding another 21,616 from the local area. SWT would need to add 9,858 students from the local five-county area. At SWT, increases may even be higher to the extent it meets the growing need of graduate level education. Among the private college sector, St. Edwards is expected to see the largest growth (2095) from the local counties based on current trend, that is, 47% of an addition of 4,428 new students.

The enrollment growth, of course, would be higher, if the higher population estimates were utilized.  Projected enrollments for local institutions based upon both population estimates are provided below:

The 2015 growth expectations will put severe pressure on the several local institutions that are expected to absorb the overwhelming majority of the estimated 45% enrollment growth for local residents.

The growth at Southwest Texas State University, especially in Williamson, will depend on increased facilities. Without additional facilities, the needed growth at SWT would not be achievable, since current facilities in San Marcos are already at capacity and offer limited opportunities for expansion. In Fall 2001, for example, classroom utilization in San Marcos was already above the Texas Coordinating Board standard. Classroom utilization is at a level that is the second highest in the State with laboratory utilization at the highest level in the State. These SWT facilities expansions are dependent upon State appropriation and legislative authorizations.

 Likewise, St Edward’s building expansion will be critical to achieve the expanded enrollment projected among private universities. These facilities expansions will be dependent upon private fund-raising efforts.

The greatest pressure for facilities expansion will occur at Austin Community College which would be expected to grow by 48% and absorb the largest increase of local residents.

A 2002 study by the MGT Corporation found that ACC’s classroom and campus utilization already far exceeds suggested benchmarks and standards. Recent analyses by facilities planners have identified a need to significantly expand ACC facilities to absorb an additional 10,000 students by 2010. These facilities expansions are dependent on local voter approval. Without such approval, ACC would not be able to grow at the rate critical to achieve the goals outlined in this white paper.

Increased enrollments in post-secondary institutions must be also matched with higher levels of degree production and the overall increase in educational attainment for the adult population.  If the educational attainment levels of the Austin population are to be maintained at the current high levels, enrolled students must graduate with degrees. Summary information on current local university and college degree production is provided in Appendix 8.

In fact, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that “key growth occupations” and employment areas, very relevant to Austin, will require higher levels of post-secondary education than have been required in the past. The well-being of Austin will require a workforce with ever increasing levels of degree completion at the graduate, undergraduate university and community college levels of higher education.  

Community College Educational Attainment

The fact that virtually all critical occupations require post-secondary education beyond high school suggests the necessity of increasing educational attainment at the fastest growing occupational categories requiring the Associates degree or a post-secondary certificate. These areas include Nursing, other critical health care workers, high tech  along with police and firefighters.

In fact, growth in these sub-baccalaureate areas must be similar to the growth in the baccalaureate level, if Austin’s overall education attainment level objectives for the adult population are to be met. That is, our Austin area estimates suggest a desirable increase by 2010 of 59,867 Bachelor’s degree residents and an increase of 68,845 residents with post-secondary education beyond high school, but below the bachelor’s levels. While the chart on page 8 (and appendix 5) provides detail on this projected growth, it is critical to understand that only a portion of that increase will happen without some intervention strategies to increase non-Anglo college enrollment in general.

The enrollment growth of Austin Community College should be sufficient to expand the pipeline of sub-baccalaureate degrees and certificates. A primary factor in achieving the desired community college educational attainment levels will be the adequacy of the overall classroom and laboratory facilities to accommodate the target participation level of 44,508 students. Moreover, expansion of several technical degree or certificate areas will be dependent on more specialized facilities—example, Nursing.

Bachelor’s Degree Production

Currently, 24.3% of the Central Texas population has a Bachelor’s degree. To maintain this relatively high educational attainment level over the next decade, an additional 59,867 to 96,000 residents would need to have a Bachelor’s degree depending on which population projection is utilized.

During this next decade degree production will be directly impacted by limitations on enrollment growth, especially at the University of Texas, which currently awards 62% of 12,340 bachelor’s degrees annually at area institutions. Therefore, to reach our objective by 2010 of maintaining our current Bachelor’s degree attainment levels, we will need to rely upon growth of the other local institutions along with Central Texas students returning to the Austin area after attending institutions in other part of Texas or the Nation. In addition, we must also assume that the area will need to continue attract adults with Bachelor’s degrees to relocate to our region.[3]

Bachelor’s Degree Production
2000 – 2001 Academic Year

University of Texas	7,624
Southwest Texas State	3,571
St. Edward’s University	653
Concordia University	123
Southwestern University	264
Huston-Tillotson College	105
Total	12,340

Based upon a detailed analysis (see appendix 8) implementing a strategy of expanded degree production, we project that over a 10 year period, 66,572 new bachelor’s degrees residents could reside in Central Texas [4] . Expanded degree production at Southwest Texas State University and St. Edward’s will be critical to achievement of this target.

This is an exciting prospect. That is, if we are able to produce by 2010 these additional workers through Texas higher education as outlined in the above strategy, we will be less dependent on an in-migration strategy.

While it may still be necessary to encourage in-migration of populations with Bachelor’s degrees (if the population estimates are higher than the conservative growth estimate), the in-migration rate may well be at lower rate than the last decade. Given the expected growth in the Austin area and the attractiveness of a “City of Ideas,” a strategy that increases local production of degrees, coupled with “targeted in-migration strategy” seems reasonable and potentially attainable.

Graduate Level Degree Production

Austin faces a significant challenge to maintain the extremely high percentage of the adult population (12.4%) that has post-baccalaureate degrees. An additional 30,174 residents with post-baccalaureate degrees will need to be added to our population mix, if we are to maintain our current attainment rate.

Projected 2010 Educational Attainment
Post-baccalaureate Degree Expansion

In the Austin Area, the University of Texas is virtually the sole producer of the Doctoral and Professional degrees (1297 out of 1300 awards). The 3576 Master’s degrees were awarded in the 2000-2001 Academic year by the University of Texas (72%) along with Southwest Texas State University (21%) and St. Edward’s (7%). A few master’s degrees are also provided by Concordia (See Appendix 8).

Based upon our current award levels at our local Universities, it is unlikely that the significant expansion of our workforce with graduate degrees will occur based solely upon local sources. Without a significant expansion of graduate programs, especially at the University or Texas and Southwest Texas State, the area will need to rely upon a major infusion of in-migration of post-baccalaureate degree holders, especially at the professional and Doctorate Levels. 

Over the past decade Southwest Texas State has added many master’s degree programs and selected doctoral programs. However, many SWT master programs, such as programs in Business Administration, Computer Science, Elementary Education and Secondary Education (delivered in Round Rock) and programs such Physical Therapy delivered in San Marcos are already at or near capacity. This white paper presumes that SWT must further build its capacity at the graduate level.

Based upon a reasonable estimate of growth, even with a major new reliance on SWT, we estimate that by 2010, only 15,155 new master Degree residents could be expected to added. This represents an approximate shortfall of 25% of the desired additions of Master Degree residents (estimated at 20,828) in the population mix, if we are to retain are current attainment share. Moreover, the short-fall increases, if we move from a conservative population projection to projection based upon the most recent past decade. Under the higher population projection the short-fall would be closer to 50% for the needed Master Degree residents (See details in appendix 8).

Based upon the above Master’s Degree production analyses, this paper concludes that very significant In-migration of Master’s degree workforce members will be necessary, unless a substantial increase in the awards of Master’s degrees is forthcoming from the local Universities. While some of the gap, may be addressed by the expected enrollment increases at all levels at Southwest Texas State and St. Edwards, a serious deficiency will remain, unless the University of Texas also expands its MA programs.

Doctorate and Professional Level

The analysis of the shortfall at the Master’s degree level is mirrored and magnified among Doctorates and professionals. At this level, there is only one significant local player, the University of Texas. The region should desire by 2010 to expand the number of Doctorate level residents by 4000 to 7000 beyond current levels. Unless there is an expansion of such Doctorate and professional programs, the area will need to rely upon in-migration to obtain such highly qualified and educated residents.  Even if we optimistically could retain 20% of all UT graduates, this would only provide only 2200 of the needed numbers over the next decade for the local economy.

Clearly, the importation of Doctorate graduates will be critical to the future of the Austin area. This, of course, should not be seen as an entirely undesirable strategy since the Austin area will greatly benefit by attracting the nation’s best and brightest to our area.  This is what is to be expected of a City of Ideas that attracts Intellectual Capital. However, there can be no doubt that a significant expansion of Doctorate programs at the University of Texas would reduce the size of an in-migration strategy that will need to be adopted. Therefore, in this educational category, it is desirable to simultaneously expand the local supply system, while aggressively recruiting highly educated specialists to the Austin Area.

Benefit Analysis

The Texas State Comptroller recently issued a report that found an extremely favorable return on public investment for Higher Education.  Her report stated:

“Every dollar invested in our state’s higher education system pumps more than five dollars into our economy.  It is a remarkable return on our money for Texans today and a vital stake in the future for successful generations of Texans tomorrow.”

While it is difficult to calculate the exact costs for the three local public institutions to achieve our objectives, the overall rate of return for our local economy will be high The State Higher Education Coordinating Board has estimated the public cost of adding a single undergraduate at a public university as $2,121 and $1,955 at a community college.  Graduate costs per headcount are higher ($8,085), as are costs for Engineering and Computer Sciences ($4,074).

Currently, Austin Community College is asking voters to provide resources to address its facilities gap and to hire needed faculty.  If approved, the resources would allow the student growth that this white paper estimates is needed by 2010 – 10,000 additional students. The five-cent proposed tax for both propositions, would increase the cost to a taxpayer with a $100,000 house an additional $50/year.

The Southwest Texas has a current request for additional state funds for facility expansion in Williamson County.  The request is for $4.5 million to help finance tuition revenue bonds of $24 million.

Southwest Texas State, The University of Texas and also Austin Community College are also greatly impacted by the general state appropriation for higher education. The possibility of a significant reduction in state funds at a time that we are attempting to increase participation in higher education could seriously undermine achievement of the objectives of this white paper.

PART II – High School Linkages

Having higher percentages of the population obtain college degrees is dependent on increasing the enrollment in higher education. The plan entitled, Closing the Gaps, assumes that a critical element in achieving this objective is to increase the college-going rate of graduating high school seniors. While individuals may enter higher education later in life, research has demonstrated that higher degree completion of the bachelor’s degree can be achieved, if high school seniors attend higher education as immediately after high school as possible.

In spring 2000, approximately 11,000 high school students graduated in the Austin area. Of these graduates 48.3% enrolled in Texas public higher education in fall 2000 with 25% enrolled in Austin Community Colleges, and 23.5% enrolled in other Texas public universities. It is estimated that 11% are either enrolled in private higher education or are enrolled in out-of-state institutions.  Additional details by county are in Appendix 9.

Based on this information close to 40% of high school graduates do not enroll in higher education immediately after high school graduation. While many of these graduates may eventually enter higher education, the immediate college going rate is still below levels that would reverse the education trends. Clearly, it would be more desirable if a higher number of graduates could continue on directly into higher education.

Distribution of Austin Area High School Graduates enrolled
in Higher Education in Academic Year 2000-2001 After
Completing High School During Academic Year 1999-2000

Reviewing the age distribution of the three major public institutions in the regions, the University of Texas, Southwest Texas and Austin Community College, we find that all three have large percentages of their student body under the age of 25. Austin Community College has the oldest student body, but still has 61% of its student body under the age of 25. The University of Texas has the youngest student body with 78% of its student body below the age of 25. Southwest Texas has 74% of its student body below the age of 25.

These findings suggest that it is critical to facilitate the flow of traditional high school graduating seniors into higher education, if the target participation levels outlined in this white paper are to be achieved. Based on the demographic profile of the student bodies at Central Texas higher education institutions, at least 66% of the increase in higher education participation will be generated by students below the age of 25.  In fact, among those entering college for the first time, the traditional age, 18-21 year olds represent, a very significant portion of the student body—42% among community colleges and 46% among public universities. Since this age group constitutes the single larges age=cohort in public and private universities, it is essential to increase the flow of students directly out of high school into higher education.

Adequate Higher Education Preparation--Recommended High School Curriculum

The ability of students to directly enter higher education is impacted by a combination of factors. One of these factors is the adequacy of academic preparation of the high school graduates. Within the seven county Austin area, 11,700 students graduated high school in spring of 2001. Of this total, 53% graduated under the recommended high school curriculum.

The overall percentage of high school graduates that graduate under the “recommended plan” is an important building block to increase higher education participation and eventual degree completion. These efforts are linked since the recommended high school curriculum contains the types and number of subjects at the level of difficulty that would prepare a student for success in higher education according to the Texas Education Agency and the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board.

Since this curriculum will became mandatory for high school students entering 9^th grade only in fall of 2004, we would expect this number to increase during the next decade. While it will be impossible to achieve 100% participation in the recommended high school curriculum, a 75% goal would increase the potential of students adequately prepared to enter higher education. For example, if the 75% goal had been achieved, an additional 2,703 would have been appropriately prepared for higher education--a  22% increase among graduating seniors. See Appendix 10 for the breakdown by county.  This clearly would have reduced the portion of the high school graduating class (currently 40%) that is does not continue the following fall into higher education.

High School Graduates with Recommended Curriculum
and Potential for Expansion

Recommended High School Curriculum: Ethnicity and Race

Data from the pre-mandatory period indicates that currently ISD students have been participating in the recommended high school curriculum at varying rates. There are also differences by race and ethnicity that will be critical to equalize, if we seek adequate higher education preparation for the demographic segments of the graduating student body experiencing the most rapid growth—Hispanics and Blacks. There is a gap in the largest ISD, the Austin ISD. In this case, 54.7% of the Anglo students took the recommended HS curriculum or better, while only 27.1 of Black students and 38.7% of Hispanic graduates took these curricula. Significant differences existed for each of the two largest ISD districts in the counties of Travis, Williamson and Hays. A complete breakdown is provided in Appendix 10.

High School Completion Rates

Of course the size of the high school graduating class with or without the recommended high school curriculum is also dependent upon the 9^th grade through 12^th grade completion rate. Within the Austin area, there are differences by ethnicity and race in the drop-out rates of the class of 2001.  In fact, the “completers” category would have been increased by 488 students, if the rates for Hispanic students and black students were the same as Anglo students rather than higher rates. The drop-out rate is, unfortunately highest among Hispanics, our fastest growing segment of the K-12 student population. Thus, the pool of potential college-bound high school students is increased to the extent that the drop-out rate is reduced. (see Appendix 11)

Drop Out Rates by Ethnicity

Ethnic Distribution				Drop Out Rates by Ethnicity				Additional Successes if Black/Hispanic Students Had Same Dropout Rates as White Students
				Drop Out Rate		Completed or Continued
White	59.4%	7,735		3.1%	242	7,493			0
Black	10.2%	1,335		10.1%	135	1,200			94
Hispanic	26.9%	3,508		12.1%	426	3,082			317
Other	3.5%	461		19.8%	91	370			77
Total	100.0%	13,039			895	12,144			488

*Completion rates are measured based on a starting cohort of freshmen. Other than drop outs, the other possible outcomes (earn diploma or GED, or continued enrollment) are reported above as completed or continued enrollment.  The 1997 Cohort only includes white, black and Hispanic ethnic groups and excludes all other ethnic groups.

White Paper Recommendations:

Concerning Higher Education Capacities-Higher Education Enrollment.

1. Increase enrollment in higher education by approximately 50,000 local residents by 2015.
2. Increase physical facilities at Austin Community College and increase resources at ACC to permit enrollment expansion to meet demonstrated demands over the next decade. Support  proposals to expand capacity and resources.
3. Support the establishment of a permanent facility for Southwest Texas State University in Williamson County as part of the higher education consortium or MITC. Support state legislation providing appropriation for such a facility. Recognize that this facility is critical to meeting the higher education needs of our local area.
4. Encourage expansion of local private colleges and universities to meet the growing need for increased higher education in the Austin area. Encourage participation in private fund-raising efforts to assist these local colleges.

Concerning Increased Degree Production

5. Encourage 50% expansion in Bachelor’s degrees from those local institutions expected to grow significantly. Recognize that this puts special burden on Southwest Texas State University and St. Edward’s to expand enrollments.
6. Recognize that the University of Texas, Southwest Texas State University and St, Edward’s University must also expand their graduate programs to meet the growing demand.  We recommend that the any increase in graduate programs at the University of Texas involve an overall increase in enrollment at the University.

Reaching and Serving Under-represented Populations

7. Enhance outreach efforts to encourage Hispanic and Black residents to enroll in higher education in increased numbers comparable to the Anglo population. Recognize that these efforts may include traditional promotional efforts and non-traditional efforts that recognize the necessity of overcoming cultural barriers to increase higher education enrollments
8. Increased financial aid for students from families with limited or no ability to contribute financially to college education costs. Develop Austin version of the successful Lone Star Scholarship currently utilized in Dallas.
9. Develop means to encourage non-traditional age students to enter higher education from previously neglected sources such as those completing GED programs. Strengthen such literacy and GED programs and connect to post-secondary opportunities.

Expand High School Pool Entering Higher Education

10. Encourage as many high school graduates as possible to continue directly to post-secondary education after graduation. Objective should be to increase immediate attendance in post-secondary to 70% of recent graduates.
11. Encourage “college plan” developed for every student in high school.
12. All high school students to take the recommended high school curriculum.
13. Encourage all ISD to minimize differences by ethnicity or race in the recommended program.
14. Encourage expansion of Texas State Grants I and II program.
15. Increase High School completion rate and reduce disparity between ethnic groups.